The global alcohol category may be facing a chill, but not everywhere is cooling. From Canada’s tariff twist to Spain’s premium rebound, IWSR’s latest analysis spotlights under-the-radar growth zones where smart brands can thrive. Here’s where the momentum lives—and what’s driving it.

🇺🇸 United States: Fragmented Market, Focused Opportunities

Despite economic pressures, the US is still fertile ground—if you know where to look.

5 biggest value drivers (2024–2034):

• 🍸 Cocktails & long drinks

• 🍻 No-alcohol beer (+$2bn by 2029; +18% CAGR)

• 🌵 Tequila (especially premium reposado; +6% CAGR)

• 🥃 American whiskey

• 🧊 Hard tea (+11% CAGR; rising faster than RTDs overall)

Key shifts:

• 📉 Super-premium tequila slowing (-7% CAGR), but premium holding strong.

• 🧃 Spirits-based hard teas blend flavour, low ABV, and sophistication.

• 🍺 Super-premium beer is the only beer tier growing (+2% in 2024).

👉 Strategic move: Focus on price-accessible premium, innovation, and category-blurring formats.

🇨🇳 China: Trading Down but Drinking Smarter

Overall volumes are down, but that masks emerging micro-trends that matter.

Winning segments:

• 🍺 Premium beer (+1% in a -5% category): Driven by domestic craft and imported “local” lines.

• 🍷 Premium & super-premium wine (despite overall wine shrinkage): Ningxia region leads growth.

• 🍸 Imported white spirits: Gin up +20%, vodka +4% in 2024; strong 5-year outlook (+5% and +4% CAGR, respectively).

Consumer mindset:

• 👥 A shift from aged spirits to casual cocktails.

• 🏠 Growth in home entertaining and “quality over quantity” drinking.

👉 Strategic move: Build local relevance, lean into casual formats, and tell quality-forward stories.

🇨🇦 Canada: Tariff-Driven Disruption Creates Domestic Tailwinds

Trump-era tariffs have changed the playing field—and opened the door for local and non-US imports.

Consumer sentiment (May 2025):

• ❌ 69% say they’ve stopped buying US alcohol.

• 🚫 67% say they’re unlikely to do so again soon.

Forecast shifts:

• 🇺🇸 US wine down 82%, US spirits projected to fall 81% in 2025.

• 🇨🇦 Canadian wine to grow +9%; local spirits +6%.

• 🌍 Substitutes winning: Scotch, Australian, and French wine gain ground.

👉 Strategic move: Prioritise “Made in Canada” narratives and expand alternative import portfolios.

🇪🇸 Spain: Premium Beer and White Wine Surge

Spain bucks the global slump with premiumisation driven by tourism, on-premise innovation, and changing occasion dynamics.

Beer trends:

• 🍺 Premium beer up +3% in 2024; forecast CAGR +2% through 2029.

• 🔄 Daytime and lower-ABV occasions drive growth in the night on-trade.

Wine highlights:

• 🍷 Still wine up +3% in 2024; +1% CAGR forecast.

• 🥂 White wine leads the charge (+5% in 2024): attracting new consumers, expanding use occasions.

👉 Strategic move: Use tourism-focused POSM, white wine pairings, and premium beer menus to ride momentum.

🧠 Merch & Effect POV

Category resilience lives in the details. While headlines scream contraction, the real growth lives in micro-trends, occasion shifts, and premium pivots. At Merch & Effect, we believe this is a golden moment for brands that can be nimble, narrative-led, and market-specific.

In the US, it’s about mindful drinks with mass potential. In China, the shift from prestige to pleasure. In Canada, national pride is reshaping retail—and in Spain, it’s a toast to the return of experience-first consumption.

The takeaway? Growth hasn’t disappeared. It’s just moved. And for those bold enough to follow it, the next wave of brand success is already pouring.