The global beverage alcohol industry enters 2026 not with a hangover—but a reckoning.

The big brands are soft. Luxury is sliding. The trade landscape is tense. And while innovation continues, the question hovering over everyone’s strategy decks is no longer “What’s next?” but “What if this is the new normal?”

From agave to aperitifs, from India to the on-premise, the new market reality is clear: moderation, value, and meaning are the new growth codes.

🧭 A Market No Longer on Autopilot

The macro forces are undeniable:

• Geopolitical tension, protectionist policies, and tariff risks are chilling global trade.

• Consumer confidence in the US is fragile. In China, it's under direct pressure from state actions targeting conspicuous consumption.

• Premiumisation, once a near-universal growth engine, is now stalling or reversing in key markets.

Add to this a global behavioural shift—moderation is no longer a fringe movement. It’s a mainstream habit, reinforced by both wellness culture and wallet-consciousness.

The result? A market that feels less cyclical, more structural.

📊 The Category-by-Category Reality Check

🥃 Agave Spirits: From US Darling to Global Test

Tequila and mezcal have boomed—but they’ve also over-indexed in one market. Nearly 80% of agave exports go to the US.

Now, with luxury fatigue, celebrity brand scepticism, and tariff fears, even tequila isn’t bulletproof.

The challenge? Exporting the US playbook won’t be enough. Global consumers won’t automatically adopt margarita culture or chase cristalino prestige. Regional strategies, localised rituals, and value-forward messaging will matter more than ever.

🍺 No/Low Alcohol: The Moderation Movement Grows Up

From 2022 to 2024, 37 million Americans adopted no-alcohol products. And it’s not just beer anymore—spirits, RTDs and even wine are claiming attention.

What’s changing? Flavour and meaning are replacing health as category drivers. Millennials and Gen Z don’t want alcohol substitutes—they want experiences that align with their identity.

To win, brands must move beyond “good for you” and into "worth choosing."

🥤 RTDs: Maturing, Migrating, Monetising

Once the chaotic frontier of hard seltzers and novelty cans, RTDs are now growing up. +2% globally in 2024, with huge strides in Brazil and South Africa.

But the next chapter isn’t about recruitment—it’s about frequency. That means building brands that belong in the fridge and behind the bar. On-premise remains a huge untapped lever: globally, just 1 in 8 RTDs is sold there.

Premium spirits brands entering RTDs must tread carefully—distribution is easy, dilution is not.

🥃 Cognac: Prestige in Crisis

Luxury spirits lost ~$1bn in value in 2024. Cognac fell 14%—hit hardest by China’s crackdown on gifting and visibility in travel retail.

The warning signs have been there. Big houses leaned too long on their tier ladders (VS, VSOP, XO), while smaller maisons told better stories.

The category must now diversify markets, refresh formats, and reinvest in relevance.

🥃 Whisky: Theatre at the Top, Contraction Below

While €60,000 bottlings make headlines, production cuts are happening behind the scenes. From the US to Scotland, distilleries are pausing output, planning layoffs, or entering administration.

India is the next frontier—with tariff cuts coming—but it’s no guaranteed win. Local players are strong. Single malt is already outselling imports. Global brands need more than heritage—they need precision strategy.

🥂 Sparkling Wine: Luxury with Pop Appeal

Prosecco remains a global star, spritz culture keeps it cool, and new variants (Crémant, English, flavoured) are rising fast. Meanwhile, Champagne is paying the price for pushing too hard on price.

The smartest brands are repositioning—value over volume, everyday indulgence over exclusivity.

🍊 Aperitifs: Where Culture Meets Occasion

Aperitif culture is the golden triangle of today’s drinking behaviours:

• Low-intensity

• Social

• Flavour-forward

Spritzes have created a halo for bitters, vermouths, citrus-forward liqueurs—and they’ve opened new lanes in RTDs and no/low formats. Expect this category to set the tone for innovation in 2026.

🧠 Merch & Effect POV: Reframe, Rebuild, Reignite

In 2026, success will go to brands that:

✅ Reframe “premium” as purpose, not price
✅ Rebuild relevance across channels, not just bottles
✅ Reignite exploration through ritual, design, and physical engagement

POSM will play a key role here—especially at the crossroads of emerging categories (RTD, no/low, aperitifs) and new occasions (aperitivo hour, daytime socialising, solo rituals).

This isn’t the end of premium. But it is the end of passive growth.

2026 will reward clarity, agility, and brands willing to break their own rules.